Suspects continue to be arrested following the suicide bombing at the Manchester Arena, with 13 people arrested in the U.K. and Libya at the time of this writing. One person detonated the explosive but the attack was the product of a global Islamist insurgencyâ€”and insurgencies can be defeated if we learn from their operations.
Here are 5 lessons from the bombing and follow-up investigation, in no particular order:
- Manchester is a hub in the Islamist insurgency network.
It was a single bomb set off by a single jihadist, but he belonged to a hub in the Islamist insurgency. Apparently, independent Islamists often exist in geographic clusters that are linked together through a multilayered infrastructure. South Manchester is one such cluster.
Earlier this year, The Guardian found that 16 convicted or killed terrorists lived within a 2.5-mile space in southern Manchester. That was before the bombing and the subsequent arrests in the area.
Salman Abedi is believed to have links to ISIS recruiter Raphael Hostey, who was killed in Syria. Hostey acted as a â€œcentral nodeâ€ in the Manchester jihadist network; a person whom others gravitate to and are somewhat directed by.
In 2000, Abedi also lived on the same street as Abd al-Basset Azzouz, a member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), explosives expert for al-Qaeda, and al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiriâ€™s leader of Libyan operations. After they separated from the same street in 2000, the two were never more than a mile apart in Manchester.
Azzouz traveled to Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009. Zawahiri then dispatched him to Libya. He is suspected of involvement in the 2012 Benghazi attacks. He was reportedly captured in Turkey in 2014 and then transferred to Jordan.
The United Nations sanctioned him as a â€œkey al-Qaeda operativeâ€ in February 2016. The U.N. says he recruited 200 terrorists in eastern Libya. Some U.S. officials put the number higher, estimating his Libyan networkâ€™s strength to be 200-300 as of 2014. It is very possible that Abedi learned how to make the bomb used at the Manchester Arena from this al-Qaeda affiliate in Libya.
Manchester became a hub for the global Islamist insurgency because Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) members fled there to escape the wrath of then Libyan dictator Qaddafi. The LIFG developed an infrastructure in Manchester and other parts of the UK to continue the jihad away from Qaddafiâ€™s grip.
One such member was Ramadan Abedi, the father of the Manchester bomber, Salman. Ramadan fled Libya in 1993 to Saudi Arabia and, from there, was granted asylum by the United Kingdom. He moved to London and then southern Manchester.
In 2011, when Salman Abedi was only 16 years old, he reportedly moved to Libya to fightÂ against Qaddafiâ€™s forces alongside his father. A member of the Didsbury Mosque claims he personally saw Ramadan Abedi fighting as a member of the LIFG. The associate did not say that he saw Salman.
The mosque attendee, who claims to have known Ramadan since the early 1990s, said the LIFG had so many recruits from Manchester that their unit was known as the â€œManchester fightersâ€”we even had our own logo. Three-quarters of the fighters at the beginning of the revolution were from Manchester.â€
- Islamists who condemn ISIS are still part of the problemâ€”and that includes the Didsbury Mosque in Manchester.
Yes, the imam of the Didsbury Mosque, also known as the Manchester Islamic Center, is said to have condemned ISIS and Ansar al-Sharia (the al-Qaeda affiliate linked to the Benghazi attacks), which enraged Salman Abedi. The mosque banned Abedi after he confronted the imam, accusing him of talking â€œbullocksâ€ [sic] and says it reported him to the proper authorities.
Itâ€™s still not good enough.
Salman Abedi got his Islamist foundations from some place and there is nowhere more influential in his life than the mosque he and his family attended. The family is “very religious” and a member of the Libyan community in Manchester said the boys “learned the Quran by heart.”
Salman Abediâ€™s father, a known member of the al-Qaeda-linked LIFG, was a long-time mosque official who led the call to prayer. Salmanâ€™s brother, who has since been arrested, is a teaching assistant for Arabic classes at the mosqueâ€™s school.
The Islamism of the LIFG and the mosque is only a hairâ€™s breadth away from that of the more aggressive Islamism of al-Qaeda and ISIS. They are all acting upon the same fundamental principles, albeit in different ways.
The Quilliam Foundation, a moderate Muslim organization, says those who originally formed the Libyan community in Manchester attended the Didsbury Mosque because it was Arab and run by the Muslim Brotherhood.
The top leadership is part of the Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas apparatus. Its imam and its supervisor of its Sharia Department are also officials in international Brotherhood/Hamas groups led by Sheikh Yousef al-Qaradawi, one of the most influential extremists in the world. His support for suicide bombing, violent jihad, theocracy, anti-Semitism and other ISIS-like beliefs are well-known.
According to the Global Muslim Brotherhood Watch, a former trustee is a â€œknown Hamas activist.â€ He was present during a pivotal secret Brotherhood/Hamas meeting in Philadelphia in 1993 to set up the U.S. branch of the Brotherhood.
Anti-Semitic tweets from another trustee, Fawzi Haffar, have been discovered. The content is so ferocious that it would lead any Muslim who trusts his word to believe they are obligated to engage in violent jihad.
The mosqueâ€™s imam personally engaged in violent jihad in Libya against Qaddafiâ€™s forces in 2011. There is a video that purportedly shows him in military attire discussing plans for attack, with militants loading bombs and discussing upcoming operations. He previously claimed he was only helping his family members to escape the violence.
In 2005, a member of the al-Qaeda-linked LIFG was arrested in Libya. He said he was granted asylum by the U.K. and moved to Manchester. He said he then began fundraising for LIFG through the Didsbury Mosque. When asked about it, a mosque spokesperson blatantly lied by saying they hadnâ€™t even heard of the LIFG, much less the arrested individual.
The mosque also has a history of choosing guest lecturers who spout radicalism of the vilest nature.
One Muslim says he began attending the mosque in 1994 but left in 1999 after it repeatedly invited Abu Qatada to teach its congregants. Qatadaâ€™s extremism was well-known and present in a lecture to an audience of 300 that this Muslim says he attended. The individual confronted Qatada and had repeated arguments with other mosque members which escalated into assaults. The former attendee says his nose was broken in one fight.
One blogger noticed at least three other extremist speakers who were brought into the Didsbury Mosque as authorities the audience should hear. Their preaching includes ferocious anti-Semitism; advocacy for Sharia-based theocracies; condemnations of secular-democracy; wild conspiracy theories; glorifying of violent jihad and executing adulterers, homosexuals, those who leave Islam and those who commit blasphemy against Islam.
Other teachings that the preachers are known for include condemning Jewish and Christian influence on Muslims and that Muslims cannot be close friends with non-Muslims. Non-Muslims are not deserving of true respect. Jews are orchestrating the spread of homosexuality, engineering a conspiracy through the media and will be part of the Antichristâ€™s army.
One speaker preached that women do not belong in the workplace and should only leave the home when it is unavoidable. Other quotes from the selected speakers include statements that Muslims cannot help those who converted to Christianity to escape from countries like Iran where apostasy is punished with death. One condemned secular and liberal Muslims as the â€œbiggest dangerâ€ to the community.
With this type of preaching, it isnâ€™t hard to see how Abedi could be motivated to take that extra step to join ISIS or al-Qaeda or why at least two other ISIS recruits worshipped at the mosque.
- We must dismantle the Islamist ideological infrastructure that produces violent jihad and its prerequisite radicalism.
Notice the overlaps in membership and brands of Islamism in the above lesson. Because jihadist groups are just a manifestation of the Islamist ideology, group membership is fluid. A recent study found that half of the most prominent violent jihadists came from tamer Islamist movements not directly engaged in violence.
A mosque operated by the Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas was a centerpiece in setting up the LIFGâ€™s network in Manchester, even though LIFG was aligned with al-Qaeda, supposedly a rival of the Brotherhood and Hamas. This same network produces ISIS recruits, even though the mosque imam condemns ISIS, as does the Brotherhood and other parts of the LIFG network.
One possible associate of Abedi from the Manchester hub joined a Libyan Islamist group called the 17 February Martyrsâ€™ Brigade, which was disastrously chosen to protect Americans in Benghazi. This individual later became an advocate for ISIS after returning to the UK.
Ramadan Abedi may also have fought for an Islamist group in Libya and been injured in 2014.
That is why the common threadâ€”the Islamist ideology and the factories producing itâ€”must be the focus of our efforts. As Elliot Friedland wrote about, a Muslim woman called into BBCâ€™s Question Time program and warned that Saudi-trained clerics were coming into her community and promoting Wahhabism to children as young as seven.
- The anti-Islamists are your allies, not the â€œmoderateâ€ Islamists.
Â The investigation into the Manchester bombing is resulting in scrutiny of the LIFG network in the U.K. that spawned so many al-Qaeda and ISIS recruits. Itâ€™s worth pointing out that our Egyptian and Libyan allies are fighting that same network and have been asking for U.S. help in defeating them since the civil war began in 2011.
Â After Libyan dictator Qaddafi fell, a very predictable civil war between “moderate” Islamist militias and secular-democratic forces began. ISIS gained a foothold and fought both. The civil war became a proxy war between the anti-Islamist secularists backed by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates and a coalition of Islamists backed by Qatar, Turkey and Sudan that includes al-Qaeda-linked Ansar al-Sharia, the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood and the successors to the Libyan Islamic Fighting Groupâ€”the group whose network bred the Manchester terror hub.
Â The anti-Islamist forces, spearheaded by General Khalifah Haftarâ€™s Libyan National Army, are the most popular and strongest of the approximately 1,700 militias in Libya. It is successful, openly disdains Political Islam, vows to separate mosque and state. Haftar wants to ban the major Islamist forces, including the Muslim Brotherhood and the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, as terrorist organizations.
There are some reports that Salman Abedi himself might have been injured in 2014 fighting as a member of an Islamist militia battling Haftarâ€™s forces.
â€œFrom day one, the Muslim Brotherhood has served as a Trojan horse, bringing foreign combatants into Libya after they had received training in regional and Western capitals and citiesâ€¦The Muslim Brotherhood provided them with entry visas or Libyan identity papers, furnished them with weapons and offered logistical support,â€ Haftar says.
They openly sought an alliance with the U.S. and Europe, only to be disappointed. The Libyan and Egyptian governments viewed the Obama Administrationâ€™s neutrality and urging of a unity government as a pro-Muslim Brotherhood position.
Egypt and its Libyan allies continue to demand a change in policy. We should remember that they are fighting the same Islamist network whose tentacles in Manchester sparked the May 22 bombing.
- The Western security agencies are not on the ball.
MI5 has 500 active investigations and 3,000 subjects of interest. There are reports that thereâ€™s an additional 20,000 considered to pose a â€œresidual riskâ€ because they were previously investigated. It appears that Abedi was considered a â€œresidual risk.â€
Abedi was reported to the government 5 times over 5 years by people who felt he posed a serious terrorist threat. This count presumably includes two friends who separately reported him in 2012 and 2016 after he justified suicide bombings and expressed support for terrorism. Members of his own family warned he was â€œdangerous.â€
He was still able to travel to Libya and Turkey (where he may have entered Syria) without questioning upon his return. He also visited Germany, and the Germans say he did not appear on any watch lists.
Now itâ€™s being reported the U.S. government told MI5 in early January that Abedi was part of a North African cell of ISIS members plotting an attack on a political target, which was thought to be an assassination. According to the unconfirmed report, the U.S. put Abedi on a watch list in mid-2016 after intercepting some of his communications.
In another blunder, the U.K. designated the LIFG as a terrorist group in 2005. Ramadan Abedi, a member of LIFG, didn’t move to Libya until 2008. He was never arrested. Perhaps this is because of the difficulty in proving that someone is a â€œmemberâ€ of a terrorist group instead of just a â€œsupporter.â€
Ramadan Abedi denies being a member of the LIFG. He says, “I condemn anyone who says I belong to the LIFG, but I praise them.â€
Terrorists are often recruited by family members or close friends. The Abedi familyâ€™s ties to LIFG, involvement with a radical mosque, location near so many other terrorists in Manchester, the fatherâ€™s move to Libya and involvement in the fighting, and various tips should have put him higher up on the priority list.
When Salman Abedi spent three weeks in Libya, it should have triggered alarm bells in the intelligence system so heâ€™d at least be questioned upon his return to the UK. That didnâ€™t even happen. He committed a suicide bombing at the Manchester Arena shortly thereafter.
Ryan Mauro is ClarionProject.orgâ€™s Shillman Fellow and national security analyst and an adjunct professor of counter-terrorism. He is frequently interviewed on top-tier television and radio. To invite Ryan to speak, please contact us.